The Future Where are we now? AAA has been surveying motorists comprehensively since 1995, and last surveyed them in 2005. One thing that is clear from the research is that the car continues to play a vital role in most Australian's lives. That is unlikely to change, as people look to the benefits and convenience of future motoring. Quotes from AAA focus groups (2003) on Motoring in the Future: "My other son will be on the road!" "Kids will have left home and they won't be driving my car as much!" "Roads won't be much better." "Cars will be made differently, curved, not square." "There will be hover cars." "There will be flying cars." "There will be solar cars." "Cars will run out of fossil fuels." "Cars will be safer." "Cars will have more safety features." "Side airbags will come into everyday cars." "Cars will have speed limiters and black boxes." "There will be more leisure driving." "Cars will have more entertainment in them." "Driving will be worse." "There will be more people on roads." "Public transport in the city will be better." "Public transport will have to play a major role." Motorists see the car as a means of travel to work, to 'get around', for shopping, and to transport children to school and other activities. Urban passenger task by mode 1970-2020 Source: AusLink Green Paper In regional areas, there also continues to be a complete reliance on the car, for local trips, although air travel is expected to increase its share of travellers on longer trips. Urban passenger task by mode 1970-2020 Source: AusLink Green Paper Roads will continue to be the dominant mode for the movement of freight although the Government, through its AusLink land transport plan, is expecting to see a shift in freight movements from road to rail. There is no doubt that public transport will continue to play an important role for passenger movement - particularly in urban Australia. Improvements in service levels in the future, along with superior information systems advising travel times and time of arrival as well as upgraded infrastructure, may lead to increasing patronage. Urban congestion may also result in some modal shift, provided public transport offers comparative levels of convenience to the car. Car ownership will increase but saturation levels have been almost reached, with nearly one in every two persons in Australia now owning a car (see below). However, average distance travelled by passenger vehicles is not likely to increase as this has remained at around 15,000 kilometres per annum for the past 30 years. Projected Car Ownership in Australia Source: BTRE Report 107 There are already a number of toll roads in some of Australia's capital cities. It is possible that some form of road pricing will also be implemented in those cities where congestion is regarded as a problem. Enlarge Table Source: AusLink White Paper What we will see in the future is a greater application of communications and computers to transport (Intelligent Transport Systems - ITS), which will improve the performance and safety of vehicles and importantly the level of service offered by public transport due to improved information systems and more effective scheduling. Advanced Safety Vehicle Enlarge Image Source: Advanced Safety Vehicle (ASV), Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport Japan According to the National Road Strategy, new technology to reduce human error in vehicles is estimated to contribute 2 per cent of the 40 per cent target reduction in per capita fatality rates by 2010. Two particular applications which have the potential to enhance safety are adaptive cruise control (ACC) and short-range obstacle sensing systems. Source: Advanced Safety Vehicle (ASV), Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport Japan. In-vehicle navigation systems will become common place - these systems will help reduce travel times by identifying the quickest route. Australia is well behind Japan in adopting such technology. Australians are quick to adopt new technology, so in future we might expect Australian motorists to embrace in-vehicle navigation systems, provided the benefits outweigh the cost. ITS will help make car travel easier, safer and less costly. In conjunction with significant pressures on world oil prices, the debate about whether we are running out of oil has become more intense during recent times. According to a discussion paper by the Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, there is two distinct schools of thought on the question of whether we are running out, as illustrated in the table below. Depletionists Antidepletionists Total endowment and timing of peak? 1.8 trillion barrels and will peak within a few years, or sooner. More than 3 trillion barrels and the peak is likely to be around 2030-2040. Is oil reserves growth legitimate? Immutable physical laws apply to the process of oil well depletion. Reserves 'grow' is response to technological improvements and higher oil prices. How sudden will the decline be? Sudden, sharp downturn in oil production. Gradual and reflected in long term price rises encouraging timely adjustment. Will the market anticipate the decline? No – deliberately mislead by the international agencies and US and EU authorities. Markets have very strong incentives to get the price right. What is the relative role of the market and governments? Government should override markets and take early action. Inform the market and assess whether additional incentives are justified. Catchcry Recall the fable of 'the boy who cried wolf too often' - the wolf eventually came. The Stone Age didn't end because we ran out of stones. Source: Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, 2005, Is the world running out of oil? What Needs to be Done? There needs to be recognition that the rapid introduction of new technologies within cars and the road system is vitally important. However, this can only be achieved by upgrading our fleet, to ensure efficient, safe and productive outcomes. In respect of Intelligent Transport Systems: Driver information and guidance systems to improve efficiency on the road network should be implemented where appropriate and should be an integral part of all modern freeways; Motorists must share in the benefits of ITS technology, in terms of better information, lower vehicle operating cost, reduced emissions and greater safety; ITS technology should be compatible throughout Australia; Consumers should have a single, compatible, Australia-wide access to advanced tolling and ticketing, such as electronic tags on toll roads and smart cards for public transport ticketing; and It is important that users are considered in the design, manufacture and implementation of ITS applications, to maximise user benefit and minimise the potential distraction effects of in-vehicle devices. In respect of private and public transport: The charges which face motorists, truck drivers and public transport users should be set on the basis of achieving safe and efficient use of the network; Where subsidies are provided to public transport, Government agencies should ensure that they are transparent; and ITS technology should be compatible throughout Australia; Where congestion charges are introduced, the charge should be offset by a reduction in other motoring costs - it should not be in addition to existing taxes and charges paid by motorists. Need safer drivers, in safer cars on safer roads (SaferRoads) In respect of oil supplies: Governments and vehicle manufacturers should continue to introduce initiatives that improve fuel efficiency of vehicles; Taxation rates on fuels should be set to reflect the actual relative costs of fuel use; and Australia should continue to operate in an internationally open market for oil Where congestion charges are introduced, the charge should be offset by a reduction in other motoring costs - it should not be in addition to existing taxes and charges paid by motorists.

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